Inventory and Evaluation of Operational Fire Potential Forecasts Across Scales for Decision Support

Wildland fire managers operate in an environment of forecasting abundance: dozens of fire potential forecast products exist, produced by federal agencies, research centers, and private companies at scales ranging from individual incidents to national outlooks. Yet these tools have never been fully cataloged, and their operational reliability has not been independently evaluated. Practitioners interviewed in prior work consistently reported being overwhelmed by the number of available products and uncertain about which to trust — a gap this project is designed to close.

The work proceeds in two interconnected phases. The first is the creation of a standardized, open-access inventory of existing fire potential forecast products, documenting each tool’s inputs, assumptions, intended uses, spatial and temporal scales, and existing validation status. Inventory development is grounded in practitioner input, combining semi-structured interviews with a broader survey of fire managers and forecasters across the country. Jake contributes to this phase by guiding methods for practitioner engagement, drawing on established qualitative research approaches.

The second phase is an independent evaluation of selected products using METplus — a community statistical verification framework developed by NCAR — to assess how well tools perform at predicting fire ignition and spread potential across a range of scales and conditions. Evaluation metrics will include deterministic, probabilistic, and spatial skill scores, with results summarized by fire regime, season, and operational scale.

Deliverables include the open-access inventory, a comparative evaluation report, and a guidance document for practitioners — all designed to help fire forecasters, responders, and planners make more informed decisions about which tools to use, and when.